Quick Take – Who’s Grossly Overexaggerating Cytodyn’s TAM Now? (CYDY)

Another day, another relentlessly “optimistic” piece of promotional garbage touting everyone’s favorite Pink Sheet Reverse Merger coronacrapper, Cytodyn (CYDY). Today it is this swill which trumpeted an outlandish TAM (Total Addressable Market) figure that whipped up retail investors on both sides of the Atlantic this morning, before reality began to seep back in. How outlandish? See for yourselves:

Cytodyn TAM (in their dreams)

Yes, $81bn, but that’s not all, maybe even $100bn!

Now for the sobering reality. Cytodyn has exactly zero approved drugs to sell. Zero. After much difficulty they have submitted a BLA to the FDA, to hopefully get their wonder drug, leronlimab, approved in early 2021. Guess that $81bn won’t come this year, if at all.

But even if they get their drug approved, the actual TAM is far far smaller. For you see, dear reader, leronlimab is what is known as a “CCR5 Entry Inhibitor“, and one that must be delivered by IV or injection. There already is a another CCR5 entry inhibitor on the market, known generically as maraviroc, or by its brand name, Selzentry. Unlike the hyped unapproved bullshit from Cytodyn, maraviroc is a convenient pill, available today.

Contrary to anything the long list of promoters, or even The Nadir, might claim, leronlimab is not a new class of medication, it is not a breakthrough, it is just another entry in an existing segment.

And how large is the Total Addressable Market for CCR5 Entry Inhibitors? Currently maraviroc has 100% of that market, and it was, for 2019 a paltry $88mm USD and SHRINKING.

TAM-Chart

Even if leronlimab magically captured 100% market share, $88mm is still only about 7/10ths of a percent of the supposed $12bn HIV TAM. Good luck with that $81bn!

Oh, and coronavirus? If CCR5 entry inhibition had anything to do with Coronavirus, Doctors world-wide would already be using maraviroc. Surprise! They aren’t. 

THE CONTENT CONTAINED IN THIS BLOG REPRESENTS ONLY THE OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR. THE AUTHOR MAY HOLD EITHER LONG OR SHORT POSITIONS IN SECURITIES OF VARIOUS COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THE BLOG. THIS COMMENTARY IN NO WAY CONSTITUTES INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND SHOULD NEVER BE RELIED ON IN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION, EVER. THIS BLOG IS NOT A SOLICITATION OF BUSINESS: ALL INQUIRIES WILL BE IGNORED. THE CONTENT HEREIN IS INTENDED SOLELY FOR THE ENTERTAINMENT OF THE READER, AND THE AUTHOR.

2 comments

  1. You have strong medical opinions. In order to vet those opinions, I’m curious about your scientific background.

    [Background? Minister of Science and Chief Defender of the Faith, of course. All one needs to know is here. – Editor]

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